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6

Gotta Be Madison

3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 86

Gulfstream · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f

#3

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

13%

Place Prob

21%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼2
Strength61%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 03/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR - · 5f 122 · HIGHER CLASS3/05C6C6 @ Gulfstream 30/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 89 · 5f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/05/2026 · OR 89 par30/05C6OR 89C6 @ Gulfstream 28/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 79 · 5f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark28/06/2026 · OR 79 par28/06C6OR 79C6 @ Gulfstream 12/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 90 · 5f Gd 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/07/2026 · OR 90 par12/07C6OR 90C6 @ Gulfstream 03/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 92 · 5f 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark03/08/2026 · OR 92 par3/08C6OR 92C6 @ Gulfstream 23/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 90 · 5f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark23/08/2026 · OR 90 par23/08C6OR 90projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Gulfstream?5th3rd+2
2026-08-03Gulfstream?7th5th+2
2026-07-12Gulfstream?1st-1th+2
2026-06-28Gulfstream?2nd0th+2
2026-05-30Gulfstream?5th3rd+2
2026-05-03Gulfstream?4th2nd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/0530/0528/0612/073/0823/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength67%

Delivery trend +1.1% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/05/20264th5/174%40%-0.34
30/05/20265th11/271%20%-0.51
28/06/20262nd9/153%75%+0.22
12/07/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
03/08/20267th14/126%14%-0.12
23/08/20265th10/147%0%-0.47