4
Hope Town Girl
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 80
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
22%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 2.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-03-12 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +9.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/03/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 02/04/2026 | 5th | 1/2 | 97% | 20% | -0.77 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 23/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |