Mo Java
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 77
Gulfstream · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/02/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/04/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 80% | +0.43 |
| 24/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |