3
Lucky Lollipop
2yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 57
Gulfstream · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-07-16 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-06-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 6-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -25.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 16/07/2026 | 8th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 05/08/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 44% | -0.21 |