1
Braganza
7yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 80
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-23 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 717% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +8.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2024 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 80% | +0.06 |
| 20/09/2024 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 03/11/2024 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 23/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/11/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 24/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/08/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |