Coco Abarrio
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 102
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
14%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 2.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-03-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/06/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 06/07/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 09/08/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 78% | +0.41 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 18/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |