5
Heir To The Roar
7yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 92
Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-01-15 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-12-14 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +6.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 04/10/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 21/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 86% | +0.00 |
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 15/01/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 13/02/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |