Spinelli

3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 93

Gulfstream · Race 9 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

23%

Place Prob

25%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength29%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-08	Colonial Downs	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-07-05	Monmouth Park	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-06-07	Gulfstream	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-04-04	Gulfstream	?	4th	4th	0	6.0
2026-03-07	Gulfstream	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-02-05	Gulfstream	?	7th	7th	0	3.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▬

Strength68%

Delivery trend +1.2% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
16/11/2025	2nd	11/10	94%	83%	-0.11
21/12/2025	5th	11/2	71%	60%	-0.11
08/01/2026	5th	9/1	53%	56%	+0.03
05/02/2026	7th	11/2	71%	0%	-0.71
07/03/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	82%	+0.66
04/04/2026	4th	7/2	82%	50%	-0.32
07/06/2026	1st	10/3	82%	100%	+0.18
05/07/2026	2nd	7/2	82%	75%	-0.07
08/08/2026	5th	7/1	63%	50%	-0.13