5
Contra
5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 71
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
56%
Place Prob
34%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 16100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +5.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 01/02/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/02/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/04/2026 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 55% | -0.09 |
| 30/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 78% | +0.04 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 90% | +0.29 |
| 06/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 04/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |