4
Holy Brick
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 65
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#14
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-29 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-03-08 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-13 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 1633% of fieldRange 6-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength33%
Delivery trend +8.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 11th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 08/11/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 45% | -0.37 |
| 13/02/2026 | 10th | 10/3 | 82% | 18% | -0.64 |
| 08/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/10 | 98% | 60% | -0.38 |
| 29/03/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 64% | +0.16 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 14/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |