Rock Talk
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 66
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +16.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/03/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/08/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 21/08/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |