Salty One
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 77
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
19%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/09/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 10/10/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 02/11/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 03/06/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 27/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 56% | -0.05 |
| 21/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 33% | -0.27 |