Say You Love Me
4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 67
Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#11
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 5.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Colonial Downs | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2024-11-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2024-10-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2024-10-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2024-09-15 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2024-07-27 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/2024 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 15/09/2024 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 05/10/2024 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 26/10/2024 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 16/11/2024 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 23/08/2026 | 9th | 13/2 | 66% | 20% | -0.46 |