Yammy Yammy Bella

5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 72

Laurel Park · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f 110y

#16

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#16

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength11%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 5.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C8.2

Today:

Class gap: -0.7

Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-28	Colonial Downs	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-08-15	Colonial Downs	?	11th	11th	0	1.0
2026-07-16	Colonial Downs	?	1st	2nd	−1	7.8
2026-05-02	Tampa Bay Downs	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-04-24	Tampa Bay Downs	?	3rd	4th	−1	5.8
2026-04-12	Tampa Bay Downs	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 1-16 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength47%

Delivery trend +9.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 16. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/02/2026	7th	12/1	37%	25%	-0.12
20/02/2026	8th	7/1	63%	22%	-0.41
04/04/2026	8th	13/2	66%	0%	-0.66
12/04/2026	2nd	5/1	74%	90%	+0.16
24/04/2026	3rd	10/3	82%	75%	-0.07
02/05/2026	3rd	6/4	92%	78%	-0.14
16/07/2026	1st	25/1	0%	100%	+1.00
15/08/2026	11th	16/1	16%	9%	-0.07
28/08/2026	6th	33/1	0%	29%	+0.29