Bahamian Moon
9yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 85
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#12
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Delaware Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-22 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -5.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 07/01/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 56% | -0.29 |
| 14/02/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 14% | -0.02 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 22/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 71% | -0.19 |
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 10/06/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 25/07/2026 | 5th | 11/8 | 93% | 43% | -0.50 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |