Ballycurrin

4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 77

Laurel Park · Race 10 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 5f 110y

#11

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#11

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength19%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.7

Today:

Class gap: -0.2

Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-27	Delaware Park	?	5th	3rd	+2	6.8
2026-08-08	Colonial Downs	?	11th	9th	+2	1.0
2026-06-03	Penn National	?	1st	1st	0	9.0
2026-05-09	Laurel Park	?	2nd	3rd	−1	6.8
2026-04-24	Laurel Park	?	6th	7th	−1	2.8
2026-02-15	Gulfstream	?	1st	3rd	−2	6.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish12th of 1415% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength32%

Delivery trend +4.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
23/11/2025	6th	9/1	53%	29%	-0.24
14/12/2025	2nd	5/1	74%	83%	+0.10
04/01/2026	2nd	9/2	76%	88%	+0.11
15/02/2026	1st	4/1	79%	100%	+0.21
24/04/2026	6th	9/1	53%	50%	-0.03
09/05/2026	2nd	4/1	79%	86%	+0.07
03/06/2026	1st	7/2	82%	100%	+0.18
08/08/2026	11th	33/1	0%	0%	0.00
27/08/2026	5th	33/1	0%	50%	+0.50