4
River Tay
6yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 89
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-11-16 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1492% of fieldRange 4-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength49%
Delivery trend -5.2% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 21/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 05/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 16/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 08/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 91% | +0.44 |
| 03/07/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 38% | -0.36 |
| 20/08/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |