14
Wonder Girl
6yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 84
Laurel Park · Race 10 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
68%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-16 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength92%
Delivery trend +1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 25/10/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 89% | -0.02 |
| 16/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 89% | -0.04 |
| 25/04/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 86% | +0.02 |
| 08/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 75% | -0.12 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 19/07/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 06/09/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |