4
Bernie Goes Boom
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 72
Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-10 | Delaware Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-17 | Mountaineer | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Mountaineer | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -9.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 13/09/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 23/10/2025 | 1st | 1/2 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 17/11/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 06/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 25/05/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/06/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |