1
Maupansant
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 78
Laurel Park · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/02/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 60% | -0.03 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 89% | +0.63 |
| 05/06/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 36% | +0.21 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 71% | +0.45 |
| 03/09/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |