4
Alice's Moon
4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 43
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-07 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-20 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▲
Strength6%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 29% | -0.50 |
| 31/01/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 22/02/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 07/02/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 17% | -0.49 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |