3
Cool Hard Breeze
3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 59
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-25 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-22 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2025-12-11 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/12/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 22/01/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 13/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |