2
Hop To It
5yo Mare · 9-13 · OR 61
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Penn National | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength71%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 11/09/2025 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 05/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 07/11/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 25/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 01/08/2026 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 15/08/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 73% | -0.15 |
| 06/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 73% | -0.06 |