8
Mesa's Spunky Girl
3yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 42
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength83%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: +1.8
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Mountaineer | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-08-15 | Colonial Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2026-06-06 | Charles Town | ? | 9th | 6th | +3 |
| 2025-08-13 | Presque Isle Downs | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-07-03 | Thistledown | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength42%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 13/08/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/06/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 15/08/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |