5
Roberta
4yo Filly · 9-13 · OR 52
Laurel Park · Race 3 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength33%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-27 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Delaware Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-18 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-03 | Penn National | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Laurel Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength63%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2025 | 10th | 100/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 31/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 10/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 03/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 18/06/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 27/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |