Biker Baley
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
89%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Colonial Downs | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-08-07 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-01-09 | Laurel Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/01/2026 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 0% | -0.87 |
| 28/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |
| 07/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 71% | -0.02 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |