Holiday Express
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 74
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 4.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-13 | Monmouth Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Monmouth Park | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-04-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 8th | 6th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +1.6% per run
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 08/10/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 16/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 12/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 09/05/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 14% | -0.12 |
| 30/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 57% | +0.31 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |