7
One Last Bullet
3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 74
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength10%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Delaware Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-02-05 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-09 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength29%
Delivery trend +4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 33% | -0.52 |
| 28/09/2025 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 02/11/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 09/01/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 05/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 25% | -0.33 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |