1
Railroad Inn
4yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 70
Laurel Park · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
9%
Place Prob
21%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-11 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-03-20 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-02-06 | Laurel Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength44%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/11/2025 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 26/12/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 09/01/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 22% | -0.51 |
| 06/02/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 88% | +0.16 |
| 28/02/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 20/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 33% | -0.59 |
| 11/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 03/05/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |