12
Forrest City
7yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 93
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Colonial Downs | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-09 | Colonial Downs | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Laurel Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1693% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +8.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/03/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 10/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 02/05/2026 | 8th | 14/1 | 26% | 13% | -0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 71% | +0.06 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |