10
Timshel
3yo Gelding · 8-7 · OR 87
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#14
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#14
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-05-01 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-03-21 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 1627% of fieldRange 6-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
Delivery trend +7.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 12th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/03/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 12/04/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 01/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 06/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 70% | +0.33 |