5
Zapata
5yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 88
Laurel Park · Race 6 - Ratings Optional Claiming · 1m 110y
#13
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-22 | Penn National | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Penn National | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Penn National | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Laurel Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-28 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 1613% of fieldRange 9-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength7%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/10/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 20/02/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/03/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/03/2026 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 27% | -0.33 |
| 02/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 82% | +0.45 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 22/07/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 56% | -0.26 |
| 13/08/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |