Mountain Mamba

2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 77

Laurel Park · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

40%

Place Prob

30%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark

Move▼1

Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.9 /10 (raw 2.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.3

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-29	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	1st	+2	8.8
2026-08-02	Colonial Downs	?	2nd	0th	+2	9.8
2026-07-16	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-06-26	Colonial Downs	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▼

Strength100%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
26/06/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	60%	+0.44
16/07/2026	3rd	20/1	0%	80%	+0.80
02/08/2026	2nd	25/1	0%	86%	+0.86
29/08/2026	3rd	14/1	26%	60%	+0.34