7
Celtic Harp
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 85
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Weather Vane Stakes · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Colonial Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-12-12 | Laurel Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-31 | Laurel Park | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 7-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength13%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 88% | +0.11 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 05/09/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |