1
French Friction
3yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 86
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Weather Vane Stakes · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
8%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength27%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.1 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.2
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Ellis Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Churchill Downs | ? | 9th | 4th | +4 |
| 2026-04-03 | Keeneland | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-02-14 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-12-27 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 2-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength47%
Delivery trend -9.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 14/02/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 03/04/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 01/05/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 08/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |