3
Late Night Text
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 83
Laurel Park · Race 9 - Weather Vane Stakes · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-20 | Gulfstream | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Gulfstream | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-02-06 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2025-12-28 | Gulfstream | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2025-08-10 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2025-07-05 | Lone Star | BHA93 | 3rd | 9th | −5 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 8-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -11.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 05/07/2025 | 3rd | 1/1 | 95% | 82% | -0.13 |
| 10/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 28/12/2025 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 33% | -0.35 |
| 06/02/2026 | 7th | 6/4 | 92% | 14% | -0.78 |
| 23/04/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 20/06/2026 | 6th | 5/4 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |