IvyArcIvyArc
6

Mooberry

2yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 60

Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 1 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

#3

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

19%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▼3
Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.5 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: +2.5
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Del Mar 31/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 5f Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS31/07C6C6 @ Del Mar 09/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 70 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/08/2026 · OR 70 par9/08C6OR 70projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 4
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-09Del Mar?5th2nd+3
2026-07-31Del Mar?6th3rd+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/079/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength52%

Delivery trend -37.5% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/07/20266th20/10%38%+0.38
09/08/20265th20/10%0%0.00