1
Dancing Thru Fire
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 74
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 2 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-20 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-01 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-25 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-01-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 25/01/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 01/03/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |