2
Misty Dancer
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 65
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-05 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-16 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 620% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength57%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 25/10/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 16/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 43% | -0.10 |
| 14/02/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 05/04/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 28/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 07/08/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 23/08/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |