7
J T's Watch
8yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 82
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Del Mar | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-05-24 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2026-04-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 11th | 13th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 09/11/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 13/12/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 04/04/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 33/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 24/05/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 08/08/2026 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |