2
Naftis
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 102
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Del Mar | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 750% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength55%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 05/04/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 16/05/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 07/06/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 05/07/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 26/07/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 02/08/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 22/08/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 18% | -0.19 |