Thirsty Rebel
3yo Colt · 8-6 · OR 106
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 4 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.4 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-23 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-01 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-01-10 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | -2th | +5 |
| 2025-12-12 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +10.6% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 05/10/2025 | 9th | 15/2 | 61% | 27% | -0.33 |
| 31/10/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 12/12/2025 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 10/01/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 04/04/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 30/08/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |