Desert Hawk
3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 82
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-02-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/10/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 15/01/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 22/03/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/04/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 15/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 13/06/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |