Fire Chief

5yo Horse · 8-13 · OR 61

Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▬

Strength14%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 7.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C8.2

Today:

Class gap: +0.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-03	Del Mar	?	6th	6th	0	4.0
2026-08-13	Del Mar	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-06-26	Los Alamitos Racecourse	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-06-08	Santa Anita	?	9th	9th	0	1.0
2026-05-23	Santa Anita	?	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-04-08	Turf Paradise	?	8th	6th	+2	4.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 4-8 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength38%

Delivery trend +4.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/04/2026	8th	16/1	16%	13%	-0.03
23/05/2026	5th	33/1	0%	33%	+0.33
08/06/2026	9th	40/1	0%	33%	+0.33
26/06/2026	7th	50/1	0%	14%	+0.14
13/08/2026	9th	50/1	0%	11%	+0.11
03/09/2026	6th	40/1	0%	44%	+0.44