Lucky Sniper

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · OR 92

Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

33%

Place Prob

35%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-09	Del Mar	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-05-24	Santa Anita	?	9th	6th	+3	4.0
2026-02-08	Santa Anita	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +8.8% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
08/02/2026	4th	9/1	53%	63%	+0.10
24/05/2026	9th	20/1	0%	20%	+0.20
09/08/2026	3rd	9/1	53%	80%	+0.27