Shapoval
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 79
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 5 - Maiden Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-19 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-06-18 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Woodbine | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 07/11/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 16/01/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 15/02/2026 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 22% | -0.25 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 71% | +0.00 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 18/06/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 19/07/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 43% | -0.41 |
| 04/09/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |