IvyArcIvyArc
4

Black Magician

6yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 87

Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

31%

Place Prob

37%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC7 @ Santa Anita 21/01/2023 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 76 · 6f Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark21/01/2023 · OR 76 par21/01C7OR 76C7 @ Santa Anita 11/02/2023 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 80 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark11/02/2023 · OR 80 parC8 @ Santa Anita 21/04/2023 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 86 · 6f Fm 118 · below its mark21/04/2023 · OR 86 par21/04C8OR 86C8 @ Santa Anita 10/06/2023 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 80 · 6f110y Fas 118 · below its mark10/06/2023 · OR 80 parC8 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 24/06/2023 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 80 · 6f110y Fas 120 · below its mark24/06/2023 · OR 80 par24/06C8OR 80C8 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 10/07/2023 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 75 · 5f Fas 120 · below its mark10/07/2023 · OR 75 parC8 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 20/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 77 · 5f110y Fas 126 · below its mark20/06/2025 · OR 77 par20/06C8OR 77C8 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 21/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 80 · 5f Fas 126 · beat its mark21/06/2026 · OR 80 parC8 @ Los Alamitos Racecourse 12/09/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 86 · 5f110y Fas 125 · below its mark12/09/2026 · OR 86 par12/09C8OR 86projClass-projected finish: 5th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Los Alamitos Racecourse?6th6th0
2026-06-21Los Alamitos Racecourse?1st1st0
2025-06-20Los Alamitos Racecourse?5th5th0
2023-07-10Los Alamitos Racecourse?4th4th0
2023-06-24Los Alamitos Racecourse?6th6th0
2023-06-10Santa Anita?5th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0110/0620/0612/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength76%

Delivery trend -0.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 8.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/01/20237th20/10%40%+0.40
11/02/20236th12/137%29%-0.08
21/04/20238th16/116%0%-0.16
10/06/20235th7/282%43%-0.39
24/06/20236th7/282%0%-0.82
10/07/20234th9/276%63%-0.14
20/06/20255th25/10%50%+0.50
21/06/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
12/09/20266th13/266%17%-0.49