6
Smarty Nose
8yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 86
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 7 - Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-28 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-21 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend +0.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 19/01/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 01/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 21/02/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 25% | +0.09 |
| 22/03/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 19/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 06/06/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 28/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |