2
Cali Cat
4yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 106
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 8 - E.b. Johnston Stakes · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-19 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-01-11 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Santa Anita | BHA103 | 7th | 14th | −6 |
| 2025-08-10 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -4.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 06/04/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 25/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 19/07/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 56% | +0.19 |
| 10/08/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 11/10/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 11/01/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 15/03/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 19/04/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |