1
Speedy Wilson
4yo Colt · 8-13 · OR 112
Los Alamitos Racecourse · Race 8 - E.b. Johnston Stakes · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Los Alamitos Racecourse | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength56%
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/10/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 30/11/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 0% | -0.93 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 86% | +0.23 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 75% | -0.16 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 29/08/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |